The Pentagon now expects to buy more than twice as many national security rocket launches as it planned four years ago, a shift driven by the military and intelligence community putting ever more satellites in orbit. A cost report dated April 21 and released this month lifts the procurement estimate to roughly $76B, up $16.8B from the December 2023 version.
The program at the center of the surge is National Security Space Launch, the Space Force-run effort that buys rides from commercial rocket companies for military and intelligence payloads. The latest Modernized Selected Acquisition Report counts 337 launch services versus 151 in the March 2022 baseline, with about 200 of those missions funded by the Space Force and the rest by the National Reconnaissance Office and other partners.
Demand has also blown past the bounds of the program’s Phase 3 Lane 1 contract, which buys commercial-style launches for risk-tolerant missions. The Space Force raised the Lane 1 ceiling from $5.6B to $17B and now projects roughly 170 missions over the expanded ordering period. Seven companies hold Lane 1 contracts, but competition so far is lopsided: SpaceX has taken 38 of the 39 missions awarded in the first two order years, including 28 of 29 in the second, with Blue Origin picking up the remaining one and United Launch Alliance none.
The Pentagon report notes that newer suppliers are not yet in a position to absorb the demand. Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket has not flown and must succeed before it can win mission assignments, while government engagement pushed a critical design change to its GPS M-code receiver. Stoke Space’s initial Nova 1.0 falls short of Lane 1 fairing volume and mass requirements, forcing a redesign to Nova 2.0, with its Pathfinder test flight now targeted for early 2027.
